Saturday, June 21, 2014

Am I crazy, or a prophet? My prediction about the economy in 10 years from now?

(1) I SAY THIS: In ten years from now, the economy of the US, Canada & Europe will collapse as 50% of workers become persistently unemployed with no hope of find a means of earning a living.

(2) I SAY that this will happen because machines will by that time have gotten so smart and so dexterous that 50% of all jobs can be done better and more cheaply by machines than by humans.

(3) Just think: in 1991 Apple introduced the Macintosh PowerBook (a laptop computer). IN 2007 Apple introduced the iPhone, which was essentially the Macintosh PowerBook in a version that world fit into your shirt pocket. Moore's Law says that power of computers is increasing exponentially, as the cost and size go in the opposite direction. Thus, it should take about ten more years for machines to make 50% of the working public permanently unemployed. In pre-computer days, the Luddite Fallacy held true. But the Luddite Fallacy held true only when all machines needed humans to control or operate them, and when machines could not approach the dexterity of humans.

(4) What happens after the collapse in 10 years? That I can't see. It will be one of these:

--The Haves will seal themselves off from the Have Nots with walls, militias, the National Guard, Homeland Security, personal weapons, etc., The Have Nots will in general perish due to lack of food and medical care, though some will find ways to survival in the nooks and crevices of the wild lands.

--Socialism.

Read more: Am I crazy, or a prophet? My prediction about the economy in 10 years from now?